Matchday 25 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Chelsea 1–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Man United drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 6 of 10, Man United 2, and 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 | 1.86 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.81 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −19 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 6, 2 end level, Man United win 2.
- 1 CHE 3 MUN 2
- 2 CHE 1 MUN 0
- 3 CHE 1 MUN 0
- 4 CHE 2 MUN 0
- 5 CHE 3 MUN 1
- 6 CHE 4 MUN 0
- 7 CHE 2 MUN 2
- 8 CHE 1 MUN 1
- 9 CHE 1 MUN 3
- 10 CHE 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 58%, 22% end level, Man United win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 13.9% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 17.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 26.2% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Man United by 1 | 13.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 4.8% |
| Man United by 3+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 17 | 1 | 1.86 | −0.86 |
 Man United | 16 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | John Terry didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 60' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 90' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% CHE |
| 2 | 45' | John Terry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% MUN |
| 3 | 46' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% CHE |
| 4 | 60' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +33% MUN |
| 5 | 88' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% MUN |
| 6 | 90' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% MUN |
| 7 | 90' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +28% CHE |
| 8 | 95' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +8% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 64% · draw 22% · Man United 14%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 58% · draw 22% · Man United 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Tottenham 1–0 Watford Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Tottenham
- Southampton 1–0 West Ham Feb 6, 2016 · replay 56% for Southampton
- Stoke 0–3 Everton Feb 6, 2016 · replay 95% for Everton
- Man City 1–3 Leicester Feb 6, 2016 · replay 77% for Leicester
- Newcastle 1–0 West Brom Feb 6, 2016 · replay 81% for Newcastle
- Swansea 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 2–0 Norwich Feb 6, 2016 · replay 52% for Aston Villa
- Liverpool 2–2 Sunderland Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 0–2 Arsenal Feb 7, 2016 · replay 65% for Arsenal