Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Stoke 1–2 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Stoke 2–1, but the replays call it even: Southampton win 3 of 10, Stoke 3, 4 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 1 | 0.94 |
 Southampton | 2 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Southampton lucky · −52 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 3, 4 end level, Southampton win 3.
- 1 STK 1 SOU 0
- 2 STK 1 SOU 0
- 3 STK 2 SOU 0
- 4 STK 1 SOU 1
- 5 STK 0 SOU 0
- 6 STK 1 SOU 1
- 7 STK 0 SOU 0
- 8 STK 0 SOU 2
- 9 STK 1 SOU 2
- 10 STK 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 34%, 37% end level, Southampton win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Stoke by 2 | 8.7% |
| Stoke by 1 | 23.2% |
| Draw | 36.7% |
| Southampton by 1 | 20.4% |
| Southampton by 2 | 6.8% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 14 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
 Southampton | 11 | 2 | 0.57 | +1.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 29' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 51' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Ibrahim Afellay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SOU |
| 2 | 10' | The game turned hereGraziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +22% SOU |
| 3 | 20' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 4 | 29' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +17% SOU |
| 5 | 51' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% STK |
| 6 | 57' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SOU |
| 7 | 64' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% SOU |
| 8 | 65' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 43% · draw 35% · Southampton 22%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 34% · draw 37% · Southampton 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Southampton
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham Mar 13, 2016 · replay 79% for Tottenham
- Leicester 1–0 Newcastle Mar 14, 2016 · replay 56% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace Apr 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 11, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Everton May 11, 2016 · replay 84% for Sunderland