Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 11, 2016
Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Chelsea drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, Chelsea 1, and 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −25 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Chelsea win 1.
- 1 LIV 3 CHE 2
- 2 LIV 2 CHE 1
- 3 LIV 3 CHE 1
- 4 LIV 3 CHE 1
- 5 LIV 3 CHE 1
- 6 LIV 3 CHE 0
- 7 LIV 4 CHE 0
- 8 LIV 0 CHE 0
- 9 LIV 1 CHE 1
- 10 LIV 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 66%, 19% end level, Chelsea win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 21.4% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 19.8% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 24.4% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 10.5% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 3.4% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 28 | 1 | 2.43 | −1.43 |
 Chelsea | 13 | 1 | 0.74 | +0.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Eden Hazard scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 60' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 91' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% CHE |
| 2 | 31' | Eden Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +28% CHE |
| 3 | 46' | Emre Can didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CHE |
| 4 | 60' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +14% CHE |
| 5 | 60' | Kolo Habib Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% CHE |
| 6 | 87' | Oluwaseyi Babajide Ojo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% CHE |
| 7 | 88' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CHE |
| 8 | 91' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 76% chance | +12% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 79% · draw 14% · Chelsea 7%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 66% · draw 19% · Chelsea 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Stoke 1–2 Southampton Mar 12, 2016 · replay 48% for Southampton
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham Mar 13, 2016 · replay 79% for Tottenham
- Leicester 1–0 Newcastle Mar 14, 2016 · replay 56% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace Apr 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Sunderland 3–0 Everton May 11, 2016 · replay 84% for Sunderland