Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Swansea 3–2, but the replays lean toward Swansea: 4 wins in 10 to Bournemouth’s 3, 3 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 0.96 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Bournemouth very lucky · −62 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 3, 3 end level, Swansea win 4.
- 1 BOU 1 SWA 0
- 2 BOU 1 SWA 0
- 3 BOU 2 SWA 0
- 4 BOU 1 SWA 1
- 5 BOU 1 SWA 1
- 6 BOU 0 SWA 0
- 7 BOU 0 SWA 3
- 8 BOU 0 SWA 2
- 9 BOU 1 SWA 2
- 10 BOU 2 SWA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 26%, 26% end level, Swansea win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 6.5% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 16.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Swansea by 1 | 23.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 15.2% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 10.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 13 | 3 | 0.96 | +2.04 |
 Swansea | 13 | 2 | 1.53 | +0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 36' | Max-Alain Gradel scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 38' | Modou Barrow scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 49' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 61' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 63' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shot | 0.60 |
| 64' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 77' | Steve Cook scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36' | Max-Alain Gradel scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +25% BOU |
| 2 | 38' | Modou Barrow scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +25% SWA |
| 3 | 49' | Joshua King scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +28% BOU |
| 4 | 61' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +31% SWA |
| 5 | 63' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +23% BOU |
| 6 | 64' | Leroy Fer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceBafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +18% BOU |
| 7 | 77' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% SWA |
| 8 | 77' | Steve Cook scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +36% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 22% · draw 26% · Swansea 52%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 26% · draw 26% · Swansea 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Swansea
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