Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 13, 2016
Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Aston Villa 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 1.18 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 2.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Tottenham about even · −21 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 2 end level, Tottenham win 7.
- 1 AVL 3 TOT 2
- 2 AVL 3 TOT 3
- 3 AVL 1 TOT 1
- 4 AVL 1 TOT 6
- 5 AVL 0 TOT 3
- 6 AVL 0 TOT 3
- 7 AVL 0 TOT 2
- 8 AVL 1 TOT 3
- 9 AVL 0 TOT 1
- 10 AVL 1 TOT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 12%, 18% end level, Tottenham win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.6% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 8.6% |
| Draw | 17.9% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.8% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 20.7% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 27.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 12 | 0 | 1.18 | −1.18 |
 Tottenham | 18 | 2 | 2.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 23' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 44' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 47' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 83' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 87' | Joleon Lescott didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +10% AVL |
| 2 | 23' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +9% AVL |
| 3 | 25' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 4 | 29' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% AVL |
| 5 | 38' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% TOT |
| 6 | 44' | The game turned hereHarry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +27% TOT |
| 7 | 45' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% TOT |
| 8 | 47' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +10% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 7% · draw 12% · Tottenham 81%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 12% · draw 18% · Tottenham 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Stoke 1–2 Southampton Mar 12, 2016 · replay 48% for Southampton
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Newcastle Mar 14, 2016 · replay 56% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace Apr 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 11, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Everton May 11, 2016 · replay 84% for Sunderland