Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 11, 2016
Sunderland 3–0 Everton: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Everton 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 3 | 1.99 |
 Everton | 0 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Sunderland about even · −16 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 8, 1 ends level, Everton win 1.
- 1 SUN 3 EVE 2
- 2 SUN 1 EVE 0
- 3 SUN 5 EVE 3
- 4 SUN 2 EVE 0
- 5 SUN 5 EVE 2
- 6 SUN 4 EVE 1
- 7 SUN 5 EVE 1
- 8 SUN 5 EVE 0
- 9 SUN 1 EVE 1
- 10 SUN 2 EVE 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 77%, 14% end level, Everton win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 35.5% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 21.8% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 6.2% |
| Everton by 2 | 1.8% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 15 | 3 | 1.99 | +1.01 |
 Everton | 17 | 0 | 1.13 | −1.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 41' | Lamine Koné scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 54' | Lamine Koné scored from a shot | 0.80 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Matthew Pennington didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SUN |
| 2 | 17' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EVE |
| 3 | 17' | Wahbi Khazri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EVE |
| 4 | 34' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% EVE |
| 5 | 37' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +26% SUN |
| 6 | 40' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% EVE |
| 7 | 41' | Lamine Koné scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% SUN |
| 8 | 46' | Matthew Pennington didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 83% · draw 11% · Everton 5%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 77% · draw 14% · Everton 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Stoke 1–2 Southampton Mar 12, 2016 · replay 48% for Southampton
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham Mar 13, 2016 · replay 79% for Tottenham
- Leicester 1–0 Newcastle Mar 14, 2016 · replay 56% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace Apr 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 11, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws