Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 14, 2016
Leicester 1–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Newcastle 1–0, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Newcastle, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 1 | 0.93 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Leicester lucky · −44 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 4, 3 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 LEI 1 NEW 0
- 2 LEI 2 NEW 1
- 3 LEI 3 NEW 1
- 4 LEI 3 NEW 0
- 5 LEI 2 NEW 2
- 6 LEI 2 NEW 2
- 7 LEI 1 NEW 1
- 8 LEI 0 NEW 2
- 9 LEI 1 NEW 2
- 10 LEI 1 NEW 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 41%, 30% end level, Newcastle win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 4.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 13.1% |
| Leicester by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.1% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 6.7% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 10 | 1 | 0.93 | +0.07 |
 Newcastle | 13 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 24' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LEI |
| 2 | 3' | Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LEI |
| 3 | 16' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% LEI |
| 4 | 24' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +18% LEI |
| 5 | 27' | Marc Albrighton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% NEW |
| 6 | 81' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
| 7 | 82' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 84' | Siem Stefan de Jong didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 36% · draw 32% · Newcastle 32%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 41% · draw 30% · Newcastle 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Newcastle
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Stoke 1–2 Southampton Mar 12, 2016 · replay 48% for Southampton
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham Mar 13, 2016 · replay 79% for Tottenham
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace Apr 20, 2016 · replay 88% for Man United
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 11, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Everton May 11, 2016 · replay 84% for Sunderland