Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Crystal Palace 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.2. An own goal helped Man United.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 | 1.39 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Man United about even · −12 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 8, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 0.
- 1 MUN 1 CRY 0
- 2 MUN 1 CRY 0
- 3 MUN 2 CRY 1
- 4 MUN 2 CRY 0
- 5 MUN 2 CRY 0
- 6 MUN 2 CRY 0
- 7 MUN 4 CRY 1
- 8 MUN 4 CRY 0
- 9 MUN 0 CRY 0
- 10 MUN 0 CRY 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 80%, 17% end level, Crystal Palace win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 27.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 25.0% |
| Man United by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 17.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 2.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 0.4% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 16 | 1 | 1.39 | −0.39 |
 Crystal Palace | 5 | 0 | 0.22 | −0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Matteo Darmian scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 61' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Own goal by nan, for Man UnitedOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +21% MUN |
| 2 | 8' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% MUN |
| 3 | 38' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% CRY |
| 4 | 39' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% CRY |
| 5 | 42' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 6 | 45' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% CRY |
| 7 | 53' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% CRY |
| 8 | 54' | Matteo Darmian scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +10% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 70% · draw 24% · Crystal Palace 6%
- Final margin
- Man United by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 80% · draw 17% · Crystal Palace 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
- Stoke 1–2 Southampton Mar 12, 2016 · replay 48% for Southampton
- Norwich 0–0 Man City Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 41% draws
- Aston Villa 0–2 Tottenham Mar 13, 2016 · replay 79% for Tottenham
- Leicester 1–0 Newcastle Mar 14, 2016 · replay 56% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–1 Watford Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for West Ham
- Arsenal 2–0 West Brom Apr 21, 2016 · replay 80% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 11, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Everton May 11, 2016 · replay 84% for Sunderland