luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 12, 2016

Norwich 0–0 Man City: who deserved to win?

Norwich and Man City drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Norwich win 1 of 10, Man City 5, and 4 end level. Man City made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Norwich City 0 0.22
Manchester City 0 0.78

March 12, 2016 · Carrow Road · Referee: Jonathan Moss

Luck index +19 Norwich about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Norwich win 1, 4 end level, Man City win 5.

  1. 1 NOR 1 MCI 0
  2. 2 NOR 1 MCI 1
  3. 3 NOR 0 MCI 0
  4. 4 NOR 1 MCI 1
  5. 5 NOR 0 MCI 0
  6. 6 NOR 0 MCI 2
  7. 7 NOR 0 MCI 2
  8. 8 NOR 0 MCI 1
  9. 9 NOR 1 MCI 2
  10. 10 NOR 1 MCI 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Norwich win 11%, 41% end level, Man City win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Norwich by 3+0.2%
Norwich by 21.4%
Norwich by 19.1%
Draw41.1%
Man City by 131.2%
Man City by 212.7%
Man City by 3+4.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Norwich500.22−0.22
Man City1500.78−0.78

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Norwich’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Norwich was ahead in it, below while Man City was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 3' Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% NOR
2 37' Ryan Bennett didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% MCI
3 64' David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance +3% NOR
4 74' Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% NOR
5 74' David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +6% NOR
6 84' Graham Dorrans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +4% MCI
7 87' Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% NOR
8 88' Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% NOR

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Norwich 11% · draw 40% · Man City 49%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.4 for Norwich
Luck-adjusted margin
Man City by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Norwich 11% · draw 41% · Man City 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Man City

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