Matchday 30 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 21, 2016
Arsenal 2–0 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat West Brom 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.32 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Arsenal about even · −20 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, West Brom win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 WBA 0
- 2 ARS 1 WBA 0
- 3 ARS 1 WBA 0
- 4 ARS 2 WBA 0
- 5 ARS 3 WBA 1
- 6 ARS 3 WBA 0
- 7 ARS 4 WBA 0
- 8 ARS 0 WBA 0
- 9 ARS 2 WBA 2
- 10 ARS 1 WBA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 69%, 21% end level, West Brom win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 20.4% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 20.5% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| West Brom by 1 | 7.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 2.3% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 16 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
 West Brom | 8 | 0 | 0.73 | −0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 37' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a free kick | 0.08 |
| 72' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +21% ARS |
| 2 | 8' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +2% WBA |
| 3 | 25' | Darren Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ARS |
| 4 | 28' | Gareth McAuley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ARS |
| 5 | 32' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% WBA |
| 6 | 37' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +11% ARS |
| 7 | 50' | James McClean didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% ARS |
| 8 | 72' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 78% · draw 17% · West Brom 6%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 69% · draw 21% · West Brom 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 30 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · West Brom
More from matchday 30, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–2 Swansea Mar 12, 2016 · replay 38% for Bournemouth
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