Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Arsenal 4–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Watford 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 4 | 2.58 |
 Watford | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Arsenal about even · −5 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 9, 1 ends level, Watford win 0.
- 1 ARS 3 WAT 2
- 2 ARS 2 WAT 1
- 3 ARS 3 WAT 1
- 4 ARS 2 WAT 0
- 5 ARS 3 WAT 0
- 6 ARS 4 WAT 0
- 7 ARS 4 WAT 0
- 8 ARS 5 WAT 0
- 9 ARS 6 WAT 0
- 10 ARS 1 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 92%, 6% end level, Watford win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 56.8% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 20.8% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 14.1% |
| Draw | 6.4% |
| Watford by 1 | 1.7% |
| Watford by 2 | 0.3% |
| Watford by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 19 | 4 | 2.58 | +1.42 |
 Watford | 7 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.57 |
| 37' | Alex Iwobi scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 47' | Héctor Bellerín Moruno scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 89' | Theo Walcott scored from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% WAT |
| 2 | 3' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +9% ARS |
| 3 | 7' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% WAT |
| 4 | 12' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% WAT |
| 5 | 14' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% WAT |
| 6 | 17' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ARS |
| 7 | 37' | Alex Iwobi scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +10% ARS |
| 8 | 47' | Héctor Bellerín Moruno scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 97% · draw 3% · Watford 0%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 92% · draw 6% · Watford 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · Watford
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
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- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
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