Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Man United 1–0 Everton: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Everton 1–0, and the replays lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Everton, 3 end level. Man United made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.86 |
 Everton | 0 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Man United lucky · −38 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 3 end level, Everton win 2.
- 1 MUN 1 EVE 0
- 2 MUN 1 EVE 0
- 3 MUN 1 EVE 0
- 4 MUN 3 EVE 1
- 5 MUN 3 EVE 0
- 6 MUN 0 EVE 0
- 7 MUN 1 EVE 1
- 8 MUN 1 EVE 1
- 9 MUN 0 EVE 1
- 10 MUN 1 EVE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 45%, 33% end level, Everton win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 4.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 12.3% |
| Man United by 1 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 33.3% |
| Everton by 1 | 16.9% |
| Everton by 2 | 4.1% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 10 | 1 | 0.86 | +0.14 |
 Everton | 7 | 0 | 0.57 | −0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 53' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Leighton Baines didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 2 | 27' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% EVE |
| 3 | 48' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MUN |
| 4 | 51' | Tom Cleverley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MUN |
| 5 | 53' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +16% MUN |
| 6 | 55' | Phil Jagielka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% MUN |
| 7 | 82' | Phil Jagielka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% MUN |
| 8 | 83' | Tom Cleverley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 42% · draw 37% · Everton 22%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 45% · draw 33% · Everton 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester