Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Bournemouth 0–4 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Bournemouth 4–0, and the replays lean Man City’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 1.14 |
 Manchester City | 4 | 0.77 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Man City lucky · −42 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 3, 3 end level, Man City win 4.
- 1 BOU 1 MCI 0
- 2 BOU 1 MCI 0
- 3 BOU 2 MCI 0
- 4 BOU 2 MCI 2
- 5 BOU 2 MCI 2
- 6 BOU 0 MCI 0
- 7 BOU 0 MCI 3
- 8 BOU 0 MCI 2
- 9 BOU 2 MCI 3
- 10 BOU 3 MCI 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 27%, 30% end level, Man City win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 6.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Man City by 1 | 25.0% |
| Man City by 2 | 11.6% |
| Man City by 3+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 | 0 | 1.14 | −1.14 |
 Man City | 15 | 4 | 0.77 | +3.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Fernando Francisco Reges scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 11' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 29' | Charlie Daniels didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 92' | Aleksandar Kolarov scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% MCI |
| 2 | 6' | The game turned hereFernando Francisco Reges scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +23% MCI |
| 3 | 11' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +17% MCI |
| 4 | 16' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% BOU |
| 5 | 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% MCI |
| 6 | 29' | Charlie Daniels didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +4% MCI |
| 7 | 32' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% MCI |
| 8 | 34' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 17% · draw 28% · Man City 55%
- Final margin
- Man City by 4
- Luck in goals
- 3.3 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 27% · draw 30% · Man City 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United