Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Leicester 1–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Southampton 1–0, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Southampton, 3 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.24 |
 Southampton | 0 | 0.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Leicester lucky · −27 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 6, 3 end level, Southampton win 1.
- 1 LEI 1 SOU 0
- 2 LEI 2 SOU 1
- 3 LEI 1 SOU 0
- 4 LEI 3 SOU 1
- 5 LEI 2 SOU 0
- 6 LEI 4 SOU 0
- 7 LEI 0 SOU 0
- 8 LEI 0 SOU 0
- 9 LEI 0 SOU 0
- 10 LEI 1 SOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 60%, 26% end level, Southampton win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 13.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 18.7% |
| Leicester by 1 | 28.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 11.1% |
| Southampton by 2 | 2.6% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 11 | 1 | 1.24 | −0.24 |
 Southampton | 10 | 0 | 0.52 | −0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Wes Morgan scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 70' | Danny Simpson didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SOU |
| 2 | 11' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SOU |
| 3 | 20' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LEI |
| 4 | 31' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% LEI |
| 5 | 37' | Wes Morgan scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +24% LEI |
| 6 | 62' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LEI |
| 7 | 70' | Danny Simpson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +5% SOU |
| 8 | 77' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 58% · draw 28% · Southampton 14%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 60% · draw 26% · Southampton 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Southampton
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