Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Norwich 3–2 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Newcastle 3–2, but the replays lean toward Newcastle: 5 wins in 10 to Norwich’s 3, 2 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 3 | 1.53 |
 Newcastle United | 2 | 2.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Norwich lucky · −56 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 3, 2 end level, Newcastle win 5.
- 1 NOR 2 NEW 1
- 2 NOR 1 NEW 0
- 3 NOR 3 NEW 0
- 4 NOR 4 NEW 4
- 5 NOR 1 NEW 1
- 6 NOR 0 NEW 4
- 7 NOR 0 NEW 2
- 8 NOR 0 NEW 2
- 9 NOR 1 NEW 2
- 10 NOR 1 NEW 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 34%, 21% end level, Newcastle win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Norwich by 2 | 10.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 16.5% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 21.0% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 13.7% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 10.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 13 | 3 | 1.53 | +1.47 |
 Newcastle | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.07 | −0.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 46' | Timm Klose scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 70' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 73' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 85' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 90' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 92' | Martin Olsson scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +12% NEW |
| 2 | 32' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% NEW |
| 3 | 46' | Timm Klose scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +23% NOR |
| 4 | 70' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +36% NEW |
| 5 | 73' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +37% NOR |
| 6 | 85' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% NEW |
| 7 | 90' | Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +27% NOR |
| 8 | 92' | Martin Olsson scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +46% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 25% · draw 23% · Newcastle 52%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 34% · draw 21% · Newcastle 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Newcastle
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United