Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Stoke 2–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Stoke and Swansea drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Stoke win 5 of 10, Swansea 1, and 4 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 0.87 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Stoke about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 5, 4 end level, Swansea win 1.
- 1 STK 1 SWA 0
- 2 STK 1 SWA 0
- 3 STK 1 SWA 0
- 4 STK 2 SWA 0
- 5 STK 4 SWA 1
- 6 STK 0 SWA 0
- 7 STK 1 SWA 1
- 8 STK 0 SWA 0
- 9 STK 1 SWA 1
- 10 STK 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 48%, 37% end level, Swansea win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 13.9% |
| Stoke by 1 | 28.7% |
| Draw | 36.6% |
| Swansea by 1 | 12.3% |
| Swansea by 2 | 2.2% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 12 | 2 | 0.87 | +1.13 |
 Swansea | 12 | 2 | 0.49 | +1.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Ibrahim Afellay scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 52' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 67' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 78' | Alberto Paloschi scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Ibrahim Afellay scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +16% STK |
| 2 | 52' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +10% STK |
| 3 | 67' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +8% SWA |
| 4 | 76' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 78' | Alberto Paloschi scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +40% SWA |
| 6 | 83' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SWA |
| 7 | 84' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SWA |
| 8 | 89' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 44% · draw 37% · Swansea 19%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 48% · draw 37% · Swansea 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Swansea
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United