Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Crystal Palace drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 4 of 10, Crystal Palace 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 1.45 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 4.
- 1 WHU 1 CRY 0
- 2 WHU 2 CRY 1
- 3 WHU 2 CRY 0
- 4 WHU 4 CRY 1
- 5 WHU 2 CRY 2
- 6 WHU 1 CRY 1
- 7 WHU 0 CRY 3
- 8 WHU 1 CRY 3
- 9 WHU 1 CRY 2
- 10 WHU 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 40%, 24% end level, Crystal Palace win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 7.9% |
| West Ham by 2 | 11.3% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.6% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 19.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 10.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 18 | 2 | 1.45 | +0.55 |
 Crystal Palace | 12 | 2 | 1.53 | +0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Damien Delaney scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 17' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 32' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 40' | Dimitri Payet scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 74' | Dwight Gayle scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Damien Delaney scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +18% CRY |
| 2 | 17' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +21% WHU |
| 3 | 32' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +9% WHU |
| 4 | 38' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% CRY |
| 5 | 40' | Dimitri Payet scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +26% WHU |
| 6 | 71' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% WHU |
| 7 | 74' | Dwight Gayle scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +26% CRY |
| 8 | 83' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 36% · draw 24% · Crystal Palace 41%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 40% · draw 24% · Crystal Palace 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 32 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United