Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Aston Villa 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.97 |
 Chelsea | 4 | 2.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Chelsea about even · −14 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 1 ends level, Chelsea win 8.
- 1 AVL 2 CHE 1
- 2 AVL 0 CHE 0
- 3 AVL 0 CHE 6
- 4 AVL 0 CHE 4
- 5 AVL 0 CHE 3
- 6 AVL 0 CHE 3
- 7 AVL 1 CHE 3
- 8 AVL 0 CHE 2
- 9 AVL 1 CHE 2
- 10 AVL 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 8%, 13% end level, Chelsea win 79%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.4% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 5.7% |
| Draw | 13.2% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 19.7% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 20.9% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 38.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 15 | 0 | 0.97 | −0.97 |
 Chelsea | 11 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.14 | +1.86 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 45' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 47' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CHE |
| 2 | 25' | The game turned hereRuben Loftus-Cheek scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +25% CHE |
| 3 | 30' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +8% CHE |
| 4 | 33' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CHE |
| 5 | 36' | Abdul Rahman Baba didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% AVL |
| 6 | 40' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CHE |
| 7 | 45' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +4% CHE |
| 8 | 47' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 3% · draw 9% · Chelsea 88%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 8% · draw 13% · Chelsea 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United