Matchday 32 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Tottenham drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 3 of 10, Tottenham 5, and 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 1 | 1.27 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Liverpool about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 3, 2 end level, Tottenham win 5.
- 1 LIV 1 TOT 0
- 2 LIV 1 TOT 0
- 3 LIV 2 TOT 0
- 4 LIV 0 TOT 0
- 5 LIV 2 TOT 2
- 6 LIV 0 TOT 3
- 7 LIV 0 TOT 2
- 8 LIV 0 TOT 2
- 9 LIV 0 TOT 1
- 10 LIV 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 32%, 24% end level, Tottenham win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 4.4% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 9.5% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 18.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 22.4% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 12.3% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 15 | 1 | 1.27 | −0.27 |
 Tottenham | 18 | 1 | 1.69 | −0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 57' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 62' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% TOT |
| 2 | 38' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% LIV |
| 3 | 39' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% TOT |
| 4 | 48' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% LIV |
| 5 | 50' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +25% LIV |
| 6 | 57' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +13% LIV |
| 7 | 62' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +28% TOT |
| 8 | 91' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 27% · draw 25% · Tottenham 48%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 32% · draw 24% · Tottenham 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 32, 2015-16
- Sunderland 0–0 West Brom Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Aston Villa 0–4 Chelsea Apr 2, 2016 · replay 86% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 4–0 Watford Apr 2, 2016 · replay 95% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 0–4 Man City Apr 2, 2016 · replay 58% for Man City
- West Ham 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Norwich 3–2 Newcastle Apr 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Norwich
- Stoke 2–2 Swansea Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Leicester 1–0 Southampton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Man United 1–0 Everton Apr 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Man United