Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 21, 2022
Senegal 0–2 Netherlands: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat Senegal 2–0, and the replays lean Netherlands’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Senegal, 3 end level. Netherlands made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Senegal | 0 | 0.69 |
 Netherlands | 2 | 1.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Netherlands lucky · −35 Senegal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senegal win 2, 3 end level, Netherlands win 5.
- 1 SEN 3 NED 2
- 2 SEN 1 NED 0
- 3 SEN 0 NED 0
- 4 SEN 0 NED 0
- 5 SEN 1 NED 1
- 6 SEN 0 NED 3
- 7 SEN 0 NED 2
- 8 SEN 0 NED 1
- 9 SEN 0 NED 1
- 10 SEN 0 NED 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Senegal win 21%, 29% end level, Netherlands win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senegal by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Senegal by 2 | 4.2% |
| Senegal by 1 | 15.2% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 27.0% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 15.1% |
| Netherlands by 3+ | 7.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senegal | 15 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
 Netherlands | 10 | 2 | 1.12 | +0.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 83' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 98' | Davy Klaassen scored from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Senegal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Vincent Janssen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SEN |
| 2 | 52' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SEN |
| 3 | 57' | Krépin Diatta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NED |
| 4 | 72' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NED |
| 5 | 74' | Cheikh Ahmadou Bamba Mbacke Dieng didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NED |
| 6 | 81' | Ismaïla Sarr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NED |
| 7 | 83' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +33% NED |
| 8 | 92' | Cheikh Ahmadou Bamba Mbacke Dieng didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senegal 8% · draw 16% · Netherlands 76%
- Final margin
- Netherlands by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Netherlands
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Senegal 21% · draw 29% · Netherlands 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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