Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 22, 2022
Denmark 0–0 Tunisia: who deserved to win?
Denmark and Tunisia drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Denmark win 5 of 10, Tunisia 2, and 3 end level. Denmark made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −12 Denmark about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Denmark win 5, 3 end level, Tunisia win 2.
- 1 DEN 2 TUN 1
- 2 DEN 3 TUN 2
- 3 DEN 2 TUN 1
- 4 DEN 4 TUN 2
- 5 DEN 3 TUN 0
- 6 DEN 2 TUN 2
- 7 DEN 2 TUN 2
- 8 DEN 0 TUN 0
- 9 DEN 0 TUN 2
- 10 DEN 1 TUN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Denmark win 49%, 26% end level, Tunisia win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Denmark by 3+ | 10.7% |
| Denmark by 2 | 14.7% |
| Denmark by 1 | 23.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Tunisia by 1 | 14.8% |
| Tunisia by 2 | 7.4% |
| Tunisia by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denmark | 11 | 0 | 1.57 | −1.57 |
 Tunisia | 13 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Issam Jebali didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 69' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shot | 0.57 |
When it happened
Denmark’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Kasper Dolberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% TUN |
| 2 | 42' | Issam Jebali didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +14% DEN |
| 3 | 45' | Issam Jebali didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% DEN |
| 4 | 56' | Kasper Dolberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% TUN |
| 5 | 68' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% TUN |
| 6 | 69' | Andreas Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +10% TUN |
| 7 | 69' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +22% TUN |
| 8 | 91' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% TUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Denmark 50% · draw 26% · Tunisia 24%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Tunisia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Denmark by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Denmark 49% · draw 26% · Tunisia 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
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