Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 23, 2022
Spain 7–0 Costa Rica: who deserved to win?
Spain beat Costa Rica 7–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain win 10 of 10. Spain made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Spain | 7 | 2.76 |
 Costa Rica | 0 | 0.00 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Spain about even · −2 Costa Rica
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Spain win 10, 0 end level, Costa Rica win 0.
- 1 ESP 1 CRC 0
- 2 ESP 2 CRC 0
- 3 ESP 3 CRC 0
- 4 ESP 3 CRC 0
- 5 ESP 4 CRC 0
- 6 ESP 4 CRC 0
- 7 ESP 4 CRC 0
- 8 ESP 5 CRC 0
- 9 ESP 6 CRC 0
- 10 ESP 7 CRC 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 97%, 3% end level, Costa Rica win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 7.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 70.9% |
| Spain by 2 | 17.7% |
| Spain by 1 | 8.4% |
| Draw | 3.0% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 0.1% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 0.0% |
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 17 (1 pen) | 7 | 2.76 | +4.24 |
 Costa Rica | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 20' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 30' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 53' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 73' | Pablo Martín Páez Gavira scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 89' | Carlos Soler Barragán scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 91' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% CRC |
| 2 | 8' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CRC |
| 3 | 10' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +13% ESP |
| 4 | 20' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +14% ESP |
| 5 | 30' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +1% ESP |
| 6 | 47' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +0% CRC |
| 7 | 49' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% CRC |
| 8 | 53' | Ferrán Torres García scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +0% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Spain 100% · draw 0% · Costa Rica 0%
- Final margin
- Spain by 7
- Luck in goals
- 3.2 for Spain
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 3.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Spain 97% · draw 3% · Costa Rica 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2022
- Qatar 0–2 Ecuador Nov 20, 2022 · replay 80% for Ecuador
- England 6–2 Iran Nov 21, 2022 · replay 81% for England
- Senegal 0–2 Netherlands Nov 21, 2022 · replay 65% for Netherlands
- United States 1–1 Wales Nov 21, 2022 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Denmark 0–0 Tunisia Nov 22, 2022 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mexico 0–0 Poland Nov 22, 2022 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Argentina 1–2 Saudi Arabia Nov 22, 2022 · replay 8% for Saudi Arabia
- France 4–1 Australia Nov 22, 2022 · replay 96% for France
- Morocco 0–0 Croatia Nov 23, 2022 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Germany 1–2 Japan Nov 23, 2022 · replay 17% for Japan
- Belgium 1–0 Canada Nov 23, 2022 · replay 19% for Belgium
- Switzerland 1–0 Cameroon Nov 24, 2022 · replay 75% for Switzerland