luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 23, 2022

Morocco 0–0 Croatia: who deserved to win?

Morocco and Croatia drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Morocco win 2 of 10, Croatia 4, and 4 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.

Full time

GoalsxG
Morocco 0 0.36
Croatia 0 0.85

November 23, 2022 · Al Bayt Stadium · Referee: Fernando Andrés Rapallini

Luck index +14 Morocco about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Morocco win 2, 4 end level, Croatia win 4.

  1. 1 MAR 1 CRO 0
  2. 2 MAR 1 CRO 0
  3. 3 MAR 0 CRO 0
  4. 4 MAR 0 CRO 0
  5. 5 MAR 0 CRO 0
  6. 6 MAR 0 CRO 0
  7. 7 MAR 0 CRO 2
  8. 8 MAR 0 CRO 1
  9. 9 MAR 0 CRO 1
  10. 10 MAR 0 CRO 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Morocco win 17%, 38% end level, Croatia win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Morocco by 3+0.3%
Morocco by 22.9%
Morocco by 113.8%
Draw37.7%
Croatia by 129.5%
Croatia by 211.8%
Croatia by 3+4.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Morocco800.36−0.36
Croatia500.85−0.85

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
45'Nikola Vlašić didn’t score from a shot0.45

When it happened

Morocco’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Morocco was ahead in it, below while Croatia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 12' Hakim Ziyech didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% CRO
2 20' Hakim Ziyech didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance +2% CRO
3 45' Nikola Vlašić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance +14% MAR
4 46' Nikola Vlašić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% MAR
5 46' Luka Modrić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% MAR
6 50' Sofiane Boufal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% CRO
7 50' Noussair Mazraoui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% CRO
8 51' Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +8% MAR

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Morocco 14% · draw 37% · Croatia 49%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.4 for Morocco
Luck-adjusted margin
Croatia by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Morocco 17% · draw 38% · Croatia 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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