Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 24, 2022
Switzerland 1–0 Cameroon: who deserved to win?
Switzerland beat Cameroon 1–0, and the replays lean Switzerland’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Cameroon, 2 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 1 | 1.43 |
 Cameroon | 0 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Switzerland lucky · −25 Cameroon
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Switzerland win 6, 2 end level, Cameroon win 2.
- 1 SUI 1 CMR 0
- 2 SUI 1 CMR 0
- 3 SUI 1 CMR 0
- 4 SUI 2 CMR 0
- 5 SUI 4 CMR 2
- 6 SUI 5 CMR 1
- 7 SUI 0 CMR 0
- 8 SUI 0 CMR 0
- 9 SUI 0 CMR 1
- 10 SUI 0 CMR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Switzerland win 63%, 24% end level, Cameroon win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Switzerland by 3+ | 14.5% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 19.9% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Cameroon by 1 | 10.0% |
| Cameroon by 2 | 2.7% |
| Cameroon by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 7 | 1 | 1.43 | −0.43 |
 Cameroon | 8 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Switzerland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Karl Brillant Toko Ekambi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SUI |
| 2 | 29' | Martin Hongla Yma II didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SUI |
| 3 | 39' | Nico Elvedi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% CMR |
| 4 | 45' | Manuel Obafemi Akanji didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% CMR |
| 5 | 47' | Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +14% SUI |
| 6 | 49' | Nicolas Alexis Julio N'Koulou Ndoubena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +8% SUI |
| 7 | 65' | André-Frank Zambo Anguissa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SUI |
| 8 | 65' | Ruben Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% CMR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Switzerland 61% · draw 26% · Cameroon 13%
- Final margin
- Switzerland by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Switzerland 63% · draw 24% · Cameroon 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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