Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 23, 2022
Germany 1–2 Japan: who deserved to win?
Japan beat Germany 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Germany win 8 of 10, Japan only 1, 1 end level. Germany made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Japan very lucky · −83 Germany
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 8, 1 ends level, Japan win 1.
- 1 GER 4 JPN 3
- 2 GER 2 JPN 1
- 3 GER 2 JPN 0
- 4 GER 3 JPN 1
- 5 GER 5 JPN 2
- 6 GER 5 JPN 2
- 7 GER 4 JPN 0
- 8 GER 7 JPN 1
- 9 GER 2 JPN 2
- 10 GER 0 JPN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 77%, 13% end level, Japan win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Japan by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 37.3% |
| Germany by 2 | 21.3% |
| Germany by 1 | 18.6% |
| Draw | 12.5% |
| Japan by 1 | 6.7% |
| Japan by 2 | 2.5% |
| Japan by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 26 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.77 | −1.77 |
 Japan | 12 | 2 | 1.25 | +0.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 32' | İlkay Gündoğan scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 69' | Jonas Hofmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 74' | Ritsu Doan scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 82' | Takuma Asano scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | İlkay Gündoğan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% JPN |
| 2 | 32' | İlkay Gündoğan scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% GER |
| 3 | 72' | Hiroki Sakai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +12% GER |
| 4 | 74' | The game turned hereRitsu Doan scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +21% JPN |
| 5 | 79' | Antonio Rüdiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% JPN |
| 6 | 82' | Takuma Asano scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +44% JPN |
| 7 | 94' | Leon Goretzka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% JPN |
| 8 | 97' | Niklas Süle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% JPN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 71% · draw 17% · Japan 11%
- Final margin
- Japan by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Japan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 77% · draw 13% · Japan 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Japan win 17% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2022
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- Argentina 1–2 Saudi Arabia Nov 22, 2022 · replay 8% for Saudi Arabia
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- Spain 7–0 Costa Rica Nov 23, 2022 · replay 98% for Spain
- Switzerland 1–0 Cameroon Nov 24, 2022 · replay 75% for Switzerland