Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 21, 2022
United States 1–1 Wales: who deserved to win?
United States and Wales drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, United States win 2 of 10, Wales 5, and 3 end level. Wales made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 United States | 1 | 0.60 |
 Wales | 1 | 1.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 United States about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. United States win 2, 3 end level, Wales win 5.
- 1 USA 2 WAL 1
- 2 USA 2 WAL 0
- 3 USA 0 WAL 0
- 4 USA 1 WAL 1
- 5 USA 1 WAL 1
- 6 USA 1 WAL 4
- 7 USA 0 WAL 2
- 8 USA 0 WAL 1
- 9 USA 1 WAL 2
- 10 USA 0 WAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
United States win 20%, 30% end level, Wales win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| United States by 3+ | 0.9% |
| United States by 2 | 4.6% |
| United States by 1 | 14.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Wales by 1 | 27.3% |
| Wales by 2 | 14.8% |
| Wales by 3+ | 8.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 United States | 6 | 1 | 0.60 | +0.40 |
 Wales | 7 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Timothy Weah scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 81' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
United States’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Joshua Sargent didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% WAL |
| 2 | 35' | Timothy Weah scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +23% USA |
| 3 | 44' | Ben Davies didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% USA |
| 4 | 60' | Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% USA |
| 5 | 63' | Ben Davies didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% USA |
| 6 | 64' | Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% USA |
| 7 | 81' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% WAL |
| 8 | 88' | Brennan Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% USA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
United States 11% · draw 27% · Wales 62%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for United States
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wales by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- United States 20% · draw 30% · Wales 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2022
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