luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 22, 2022

Mexico 0–0 Poland: who deserved to win?

Mexico and Poland drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Mexico win 2 of 10, Poland 5, and 3 end level. Poland made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.

Full time

GoalsxG
Mexico 0 0.53
Poland 0 1.14

November 22, 2022 · Stadium 974 · Referee: Chris Beath

Luck index +15 Mexico about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mexico win 2, 3 end level, Poland win 5.

  1. 1 MEX 2 POL 1
  2. 2 MEX 1 POL 0
  3. 3 MEX 0 POL 0
  4. 4 MEX 0 POL 0
  5. 5 MEX 0 POL 0
  6. 6 MEX 0 POL 3
  7. 7 MEX 0 POL 2
  8. 8 MEX 1 POL 2
  9. 9 MEX 0 POL 1
  10. 10 MEX 0 POL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Mexico win 19%, 31% end level, Poland win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Mexico by 3+0.8%
Mexico by 23.5%
Mexico by 114.9%
Draw31.4%
Poland by 126.3%
Poland by 215.9%
Poland by 3+7.2%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mexico1100.53−0.53
Poland6 (1 pen)01.14−1.14

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
57'Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a penalty0.78

When it happened

Mexico’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Mexico was ahead in it, below while Poland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' Héctor Alfredo Moreno Herrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +4% POL
2 25' Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% POL
3 57' Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +27% MEX
4 57' Jakub Kamiński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% MEX
5 59' Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% POL
6 63' Henry Josué Martín Mex didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% POL
7 81' Jakub Piotr Kiwior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +6% MEX
8 93' Jakub Kamiński didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% MEX

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mexico 15% · draw 30% · Poland 56%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.5 for Mexico
Luck-adjusted margin
Poland by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Mexico 19% · draw 31% · Poland 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 1 matches, 2022 · Mexico · Poland

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