Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 22, 2022
France 4–1 Australia: who deserved to win?
France beat Australia 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, France win 9 of 10. France made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 France about even · −4 Australia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. France win 9, 0 end level, Australia win 1.
- 1 FRA 2 AUS 1
- 2 FRA 2 AUS 0
- 3 FRA 2 AUS 0
- 4 FRA 3 AUS 0
- 5 FRA 3 AUS 0
- 6 FRA 4 AUS 0
- 7 FRA 5 AUS 0
- 8 FRA 5 AUS 0
- 9 FRA 6 AUS 0
- 10 FRA 1 AUS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 94%, 5% end level, Australia win 1%. The line is what actually happened: France by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 64.8% |
| France by 2 | 17.4% |
| France by 1 | 11.6% |
| Draw | 4.7% |
| Australia by 1 | 1.2% |
| Australia by 2 | 0.3% |
| Australia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 23 | 4 | 3.17 | +0.83 |
 Australia | 4 | 1 | 0.32 | +0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Craig Goodwin scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 26' | Adrien Rabiot scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 31' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 44' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 67' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 70' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Craig Goodwin scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +20% AUS |
| 2 | 26' | The game turned hereAdrien Rabiot scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +22% FRA |
| 3 | 28' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% AUS |
| 4 | 31' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 78% chance | +6% FRA |
| 5 | 36' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% AUS |
| 6 | 44' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +8% AUS |
| 7 | 46' | Jackson Irvine didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% FRA |
| 8 | 67' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +9% FRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
France 99% · draw 1% · Australia 0%
- Final margin
- France by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for France
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- France 94% · draw 5% · Australia 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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