Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 23, 2022
Belgium 1–0 Canada: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Canada 1–0, a result the replays rarely give: Canada win 7 of 10, Belgium only 1, 2 end level. Canada made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +82 Belgium very lucky · −82 Canada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 1, 2 end level, Canada win 7.
- 1 BEL 3 CAN 2
- 2 BEL 1 CAN 1
- 3 BEL 1 CAN 1
- 4 BEL 1 CAN 6
- 5 BEL 0 CAN 3
- 6 BEL 1 CAN 4
- 7 BEL 1 CAN 3
- 8 BEL 0 CAN 2
- 9 BEL 1 CAN 2
- 10 BEL 1 CAN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 10%, 16% end level, Canada win 73%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Belgium by 2 | 2.3% |
| Belgium by 1 | 7.6% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Canada by 1 | 22.8% |
| Canada by 2 | 20.4% |
| Canada by 3+ | 30.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 9 | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 |
 Canada | 22 (1 pen) | 0 | 2.55 | −2.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Alphonso Davies didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 43' | Michy Batshuayi Tunga scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Alphonso Davies didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +19% BEL |
| 2 | 10' | Jonathan David didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% BEL |
| 3 | 43' | Michy Batshuayi Tunga scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +23% BEL |
| 4 | 46' | Tajon Buchanan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% BEL |
| 5 | 47' | Jonathan David didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BEL |
| 6 | 79' | Cyle Larin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BEL |
| 7 | 85' | Cyle Larin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% BEL |
| 8 | 91' | Cyle Larin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 7% · draw 14% · Canada 79%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canada by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 10% · draw 16% · Canada 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 19% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2022
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