Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 20, 2022
Qatar 0–2 Ecuador: who deserved to win?
Ecuador beat Qatar 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Ecuador win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Ecuador made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Ecuador about even · −20 Qatar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Qatar win 1, 3 end level, Ecuador win 6.
- 1 QAT 1 ECU 0
- 2 QAT 0 ECU 0
- 3 QAT 0 ECU 0
- 4 QAT 0 ECU 0
- 5 QAT 0 ECU 3
- 6 QAT 0 ECU 2
- 7 QAT 0 ECU 2
- 8 QAT 0 ECU 1
- 9 QAT 0 ECU 1
- 10 QAT 0 ECU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Qatar win 7%, 27% end level, Ecuador win 66%. The line is what actually happened: Ecuador by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Qatar by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Qatar by 2 | 0.8% |
| Qatar by 1 | 5.8% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Ecuador by 1 | 33.3% |
| Ecuador by 2 | 20.3% |
| Ecuador by 3+ | 12.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Qatar | 5 | 0 | 0.30 | −0.30 |
 Ecuador | 6 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.15 | +0.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 30' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Qatar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% ECU |
| 2 | 28' | Romario Andrés Ibarra Mina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% QAT |
| 3 | 30' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +14% ECU |
| 4 | 32' | Abdelkarim Hassan Al Haj Fadlalla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% ECU |
| 5 | 49' | Almoez Ali Zainalabiddin Abdulla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% ECU |
| 6 | 54' | Romario Andrés Ibarra Mina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +0% QAT |
| 7 | 61' | Pedro Miguel Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% ECU |
| 8 | 85' | Mohammed Muntari didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% ECU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Qatar 1% · draw 7% · Ecuador 92%
- Final margin
- Ecuador by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Ecuador
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ecuador by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Qatar 7% · draw 27% · Ecuador 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Ecuador win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2022
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