Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 22, 2022
Argentina 1–2 Saudi Arabia: who deserved to win?
Saudi Arabia beat Argentina 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Argentina win 9 of 10, Saudi Arabia only 0, 1 end level. Argentina made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 1 | 2.49 |
 Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +92 Saudi Arabia very lucky · −92 Argentina
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Argentina win 9, 1 ends level, Saudi Arabia win 0.
- 1 ARG 1 KSA 0
- 2 ARG 1 KSA 0
- 3 ARG 1 KSA 0
- 4 ARG 2 KSA 0
- 5 ARG 2 KSA 0
- 6 ARG 3 KSA 0
- 7 ARG 3 KSA 0
- 8 ARG 4 KSA 0
- 9 ARG 5 KSA 0
- 10 ARG 0 KSA 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 86%, 11% end level, Saudi Arabia win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Saudi Arabia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 36.7% |
| Argentina by 2 | 25.9% |
| Argentina by 1 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 11.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 2.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 0.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.49 | −1.49 |
 Saudi Arabia | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | +1.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 47' | Saleh Khalid Al Shehri scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 52' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 62' | Lisandro Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 62' | Nicolás Alejandro Tagliafico didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% KSA |
| 2 | 9' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% ARG |
| 3 | 47' | The game turned hereSaleh Khalid Al Shehri scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +29% KSA |
| 4 | 52' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +32% KSA |
| 5 | 62' | Lisandro Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chanceNicolás Alejandro Tagliafico didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +35% KSA |
| 6 | 68' | Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% KSA |
| 7 | 83' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% KSA |
| 8 | 100' | Julián Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% KSA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Argentina 93% · draw 6% · Saudi Arabia 2%
- Final margin
- Saudi Arabia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Saudi Arabia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Argentina by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Argentina 86% · draw 11% · Saudi Arabia 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Saudi Arabia win 8% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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