Matchday 1 · World Cup 2022 · November 24, 2022
Uruguay 0–0 South Korea: who deserved to win?
Uruguay and South Korea drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Uruguay win 2 of 10, South Korea 3, and 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.4 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 0 | 0.42 |
 South Korea | 0 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Uruguay about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Uruguay win 2, 5 end level, South Korea win 3.
- 1 URU 2 KOR 1
- 2 URU 1 KOR 0
- 3 URU 0 KOR 0
- 4 URU 0 KOR 0
- 5 URU 0 KOR 0
- 6 URU 0 KOR 0
- 7 URU 0 KOR 0
- 8 URU 0 KOR 2
- 9 URU 0 KOR 1
- 10 URU 0 KOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Uruguay win 23%, 48% end level, South Korea win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Uruguay by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 4.3% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 18.3% |
| Draw | 47.6% |
| South Korea by 1 | 22.3% |
| South Korea by 2 | 5.5% |
| South Korea by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 10 | 0 | 0.42 | −0.42 |
 South Korea | 7 | 0 | 0.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Ui-Jo Hwang didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Uruguay’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33' | Ui-Jo Hwang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% URU |
| 2 | 42' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% KOR |
| 3 | 52' | Min Jae Kim didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% URU |
| 4 | 54' | Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% KOR |
| 5 | 68' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% KOR |
| 6 | 76' | Gue-Sung Cho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% URU |
| 7 | 86' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% KOR |
| 8 | 89' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% URU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Uruguay 23% · draw 46% · South Korea 30%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Uruguay
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Korea by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Uruguay 23% · draw 48% · South Korea 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
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