Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 25, 2022
Qatar 1–3 Senegal: who deserved to win?
Senegal beat Qatar 3–1, and the replays lean Senegal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Qatar, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.9).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Senegal lucky · −40 Qatar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Qatar win 2, 3 end level, Senegal win 5.
- 1 QAT 2 SEN 1
- 2 QAT 2 SEN 0
- 3 QAT 0 SEN 0
- 4 QAT 0 SEN 0
- 5 QAT 0 SEN 0
- 6 QAT 0 SEN 3
- 7 QAT 0 SEN 2
- 8 QAT 0 SEN 1
- 9 QAT 1 SEN 2
- 10 QAT 0 SEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Qatar win 23%, 34% end level, Senegal win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Senegal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Qatar by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Qatar by 2 | 4.8% |
| Qatar by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 34.0% |
| Senegal by 1 | 26.0% |
| Senegal by 2 | 11.7% |
| Senegal by 3+ | 5.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Qatar | 10 | 1 | 0.96 | +0.04 |
 Senegal | 12 | 3 | 0.90 | +2.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Boulaye Dia scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 47' | Famara Diedhiou scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 66' | Ismaeel Mohammad Mohammad didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 77' | Mohammed Muntari scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 83' | Cheikh Ahmadou Bamba Mbacke Dieng scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Qatar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Famara Diedhiou didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% QAT |
| 2 | 40' | Boulaye Dia scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +23% SEN |
| 3 | 47' | Famara Diedhiou scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +13% SEN |
| 4 | 54' | Abdelkarim Hassan Al Haj Fadlalla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% SEN |
| 5 | 62' | Almoez Ali Zainalabiddin Abdulla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% SEN |
| 6 | 66' | Ismaeel Mohammad Mohammad didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +4% SEN |
| 7 | 77' | Mohammed Muntari scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +6% QAT |
| 8 | 83' | Cheikh Ahmadou Bamba Mbacke Dieng scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SEN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Qatar 13% · draw 24% · Senegal 63%
- Final margin
- Senegal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Senegal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senegal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Qatar 23% · draw 34% · Senegal 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Senegal win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
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- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
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- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil