Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 27, 2022
Spain 1–1 Germany: who deserved to win?
Spain and Germany drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Spain win 3 of 10, Germany 4, and 3 end level. Germany made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Spain about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Spain win 3, 3 end level, Germany win 4.
- 1 ESP 1 GER 0
- 2 ESP 1 GER 0
- 3 ESP 2 GER 0
- 4 ESP 1 GER 1
- 5 ESP 1 GER 1
- 6 ESP 0 GER 0
- 7 ESP 0 GER 2
- 8 ESP 0 GER 2
- 9 ESP 0 GER 1
- 10 ESP 0 GER 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 26%, 32% end level, Germany win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Spain by 2 | 5.5% |
| Spain by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Germany by 1 | 26.1% |
| Germany by 2 | 11.3% |
| Germany by 3+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 7 | 1 | 0.64 | +0.36 |
 Germany | 11 | 1 | 1.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 72' | Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 82' | Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Ferrán Torres García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GER |
| 2 | 55' | Joshua Kimmich didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ESP |
| 3 | 61' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +24% ESP |
| 4 | 72' | Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +15% ESP |
| 5 | 72' | Jamal Musiala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +12% ESP |
| 6 | 73' | Niclas Füllkrug didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
| 7 | 80' | Joshua Kimmich didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ESP |
| 8 | 82' | Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +38% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Spain 19% · draw 31% · Germany 50%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Spain
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Spain 26% · draw 32% · Germany 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2022
- Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Wales 0–2 Iran Nov 25, 2022 · replay 71% for Iran
- Qatar 1–3 Senegal Nov 25, 2022 · replay 60% for Senegal
- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil