luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 25, 2022

Wales 0–2 Iran: who deserved to win?

Iran beat Wales 2–0, and the replays lean Iran’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Wales, 3 end level. Iran made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.

Full time

GoalsxG
Wales 0 0.62
Iran 2 1.45

November 25, 2022 · Ahmad bin Ali Stadium · Referee: Mario Alberto Escobar Toca

Luck index +29 Iran lucky · −29 Wales

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wales win 2, 3 end level, Iran win 5.

  1. 1 WAL 1 IRN 0
  2. 2 WAL 2 IRN 1
  3. 3 WAL 1 IRN 1
  4. 4 WAL 1 IRN 1
  5. 5 WAL 1 IRN 1
  6. 6 WAL 0 IRN 3
  7. 7 WAL 0 IRN 2
  8. 8 WAL 0 IRN 2
  9. 9 WAL 0 IRN 1
  10. 10 WAL 0 IRN 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Wales win 16%, 26% end level, Iran win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Iran by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Wales by 3+0.8%
Wales by 23.2%
Wales by 112.3%
Draw25.9%
Iran by 127.7%
Iran by 217.8%
Iran by 3+12.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Wales1000.62−0.62
Iran2121.45+0.55

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
97'Roozbeh Cheshmi scored from a shot0.03
100'Ramin Rezaeian scored from a shot0.20

When it happened

Wales’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Wales was ahead in it, below while Iran was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +3% IRN
2 50' Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance +9% WAL
3 51' Sardar Azmoun didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +7% WAL
4 52' Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +7% IRN
5 63' Mehdi Taremi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% WAL
6 87' Karim Ansarifard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% WAL
7 95' Brennan Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% IRN
8 97' Roozbeh Cheshmi scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +48% IRN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wales 4% · draw 12% · Iran 84%

Final margin
Iran by 2
Luck in goals
0.9 for Iran
Luck-adjusted margin
Iran by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Wales 16% · draw 26% · Iran 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Iran win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 2 matches, 2022 · Wales · Iran

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