Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 27, 2022
Japan 0–1 Costa Rica: who deserved to win?
Costa Rica beat Japan 1–0, but the replays lean toward Japan: 5 wins in 10 to Costa Rica’s 1, 4 end level. Japan made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Japan | 0 | 0.77 |
 Costa Rica | 1 | 0.20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Costa Rica very lucky · −67 Japan
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Japan win 5, 4 end level, Costa Rica win 1.
- 1 JPN 2 CRC 1
- 2 JPN 1 CRC 0
- 3 JPN 1 CRC 0
- 4 JPN 2 CRC 0
- 5 JPN 2 CRC 0
- 6 JPN 0 CRC 0
- 7 JPN 0 CRC 0
- 8 JPN 0 CRC 0
- 9 JPN 0 CRC 0
- 10 JPN 1 CRC 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Japan win 45%, 44% end level, Costa Rica win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Costa Rica by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Japan by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Japan by 2 | 11.9% |
| Japan by 1 | 30.1% |
| Draw | 44.3% |
| Costa Rica by 1 | 9.3% |
| Costa Rica by 2 | 1.0% |
| Costa Rica by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Japan | 13 | 0 | 0.77 | −0.77 |
 Costa Rica | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | +0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 80' | Keysher Fuller Spence scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Japan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45' | Hidemasa Morita didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CRC |
| 2 | 45' | Takuma Asano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRC |
| 3 | 47' | Takuma Asano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CRC |
| 4 | 49' | Ko Itakura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CRC |
| 5 | 62' | Yuki Soma didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CRC |
| 6 | 71' | Daichi Kamada didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CRC |
| 7 | 80' | Keysher Fuller Spence scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +38% CRC |
| 8 | 87' | Daichi Kamada didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% CRC |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Japan 47% · draw 41% · Costa Rica 11%
- Final margin
- Costa Rica by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Costa Rica
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Japan by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Japan 45% · draw 44% · Costa Rica 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Costa Rica win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
- Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Wales 0–2 Iran Nov 25, 2022 · replay 71% for Iran
- Qatar 1–3 Senegal Nov 25, 2022 · replay 60% for Senegal
- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil