Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 25, 2022
Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador: who deserved to win?
Netherlands and Ecuador drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Netherlands win 0 of 10, Ecuador 8, and 2 end level. Ecuador made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 1 | 0.10 |
 Ecuador | 1 | 1.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Netherlands lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Netherlands win 0, 2 end level, Ecuador win 8.
- 1 NED 0 ECU 0
- 2 NED 0 ECU 0
- 3 NED 0 ECU 4
- 4 NED 0 ECU 3
- 5 NED 1 ECU 3
- 6 NED 0 ECU 2
- 7 NED 1 ECU 2
- 8 NED 0 ECU 1
- 9 NED 0 ECU 1
- 10 NED 0 ECU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 3%, 24% end level, Ecuador win 73%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 0.2% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 3.1% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Ecuador by 1 | 33.6% |
| Ecuador by 2 | 22.2% |
| Ecuador by 3+ | 17.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | +0.90 |
 Ecuador | 15 | 1 | 1.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 48' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +22% NED |
| 2 | 26' | Michael Steveen Estrada Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NED |
| 3 | 47' | Pervis Josué Estupiñán Tenorio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% NED |
| 4 | 48' | Pervis Josué Estupiñán Tenorio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NED |
| 5 | 48' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +7% ECU |
| 6 | 58' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% NED |
| 7 | 63' | Michael Steveen Estrada Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% NED |
| 8 | 91' | Angelo Smit Preciado Quiñónez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Netherlands 2% · draw 12% · Ecuador 86%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Netherlands
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ecuador by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Netherlands 3% · draw 24% · Ecuador 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
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