Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 26, 2022
Tunisia 0–1 Australia: who deserved to win?
Australia beat Tunisia 1–0, but the replays lean toward Tunisia: 4 wins in 10 to Australia’s 2, 4 end level. Tunisia made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Australia very lucky · −62 Tunisia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tunisia win 4, 4 end level, Australia win 2.
- 1 TUN 2 AUS 1
- 2 TUN 1 AUS 0
- 3 TUN 2 AUS 0
- 4 TUN 2 AUS 0
- 5 TUN 1 AUS 1
- 6 TUN 0 AUS 0
- 7 TUN 0 AUS 0
- 8 TUN 0 AUS 0
- 9 TUN 0 AUS 2
- 10 TUN 1 AUS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tunisia win 43%, 39% end level, Australia win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Australia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tunisia by 3+ | 4.4% |
| Tunisia by 2 | 11.9% |
| Tunisia by 1 | 26.4% |
| Draw | 38.7% |
| Australia by 1 | 14.8% |
| Australia by 2 | 3.3% |
| Australia by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tunisia | 14 | 0 | 1.05 | −1.05 |
 Australia | 9 | 1 | 0.36 | +0.64 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Mitchell Thomas Duke scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Tunisia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Mitchell Thomas Duke scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +25% AUS |
| 2 | 40' | Mohamed Dräger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% AUS |
| 3 | 47' | Youssef Msakni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% AUS |
| 4 | 65' | Youssef Msakni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AUS |
| 5 | 71' | Youssef Msakni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% AUS |
| 6 | 74' | Youssef Msakni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% AUS |
| 7 | 86' | Naïm Sliti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% AUS |
| 8 | 87' | Wahbi Khazri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% AUS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tunisia 53% · draw 32% · Australia 15%
- Final margin
- Australia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Australia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tunisia by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Tunisia 43% · draw 39% · Australia 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Australia win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
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- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
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- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil