Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 26, 2022
Argentina 2–0 Mexico: who deserved to win?
Argentina beat Mexico 2–0, and the replays lean Argentina’s way: 3 wins in 10, 1 for Mexico, 6 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.2).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Argentina lucky · −45 Mexico
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Argentina win 3, 6 end level, Mexico win 1.
- 1 ARG 1 MEX 0
- 2 ARG 2 MEX 1
- 3 ARG 2 MEX 0
- 4 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 5 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 6 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 7 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 8 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 9 ARG 0 MEX 0
- 10 ARG 0 MEX 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Argentina win 26%, 57% end level, Mexico win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Argentina by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Argentina by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Argentina by 2 | 4.2% |
| Argentina by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 57.5% |
| Mexico by 1 | 14.3% |
| Mexico by 2 | 1.8% |
| Mexico by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 5 | 2 | 0.33 | +1.67 |
 Mexico | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | −0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 86' | Enzo Fernandez scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | César Jasib Montes Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ARG |
| 2 | 39' | Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% MEX |
| 3 | 44' | Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ARG |
| 4 | 47' | Hirving Rodrigo Lozano Bahena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ARG |
| 5 | 50' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MEX |
| 6 | 63' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +35% ARG |
| 7 | 69' | Nahuel Molina Lucero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% MEX |
| 8 | 86' | Enzo Fernandez scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ARG |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Argentina 84% · draw 12% · Mexico 4%
- Final margin
- Argentina by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Argentina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Argentina by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Argentina 26% · draw 57% · Mexico 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Argentina win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
- Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Wales 0–2 Iran Nov 25, 2022 · replay 71% for Iran
- Qatar 1–3 Senegal Nov 25, 2022 · replay 60% for Senegal
- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil