Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 27, 2022
Croatia 4–1 Canada: who deserved to win?
Croatia beat Canada 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Croatia win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Croatia about even · −5 Canada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 9, 1 ends level, Canada win 0.
- 1 CRO 2 CAN 1
- 2 CRO 2 CAN 0
- 3 CRO 2 CAN 0
- 4 CRO 3 CAN 0
- 5 CRO 3 CAN 0
- 6 CRO 4 CAN 0
- 7 CRO 4 CAN 0
- 8 CRO 5 CAN 0
- 9 CRO 6 CAN 0
- 10 CRO 1 CAN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 92%, 6% end level, Canada win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Croatia by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 56.6% |
| Croatia by 2 | 20.5% |
| Croatia by 1 | 14.9% |
| Draw | 6.5% |
| Canada by 1 | 1.4% |
| Canada by 2 | 0.1% |
| Canada by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 13 | 4 | 2.61 | +1.39 |
 Canada | 8 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Alphonso Davies scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 21' | Marko Livaja didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 35' | Andrej Kramarić scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 43' | Marko Livaja scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 69' | Andrej Kramarić scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 77' | Marcelo Brozović didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 93' | Lovro Majer scored from a shot | 0.69 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Alphonso Davies scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +22% CAN |
| 2 | 21' | Marko Livaja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +11% CAN |
| 3 | 34' | Marko Livaja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% CAN |
| 4 | 35' | The game turned hereAndrej Kramarić scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +25% CRO |
| 5 | 43' | Marko Livaja scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +26% CRO |
| 6 | 53' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% CAN |
| 7 | 55' | Jonathan David didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRO |
| 8 | 69' | Andrej Kramarić scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +9% CRO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 98% · draw 1% · Canada 0%
- Final margin
- Croatia by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Croatia by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 92% · draw 6% · Canada 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Croatia win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
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