Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 27, 2022
Belgium 0–2 Morocco: who deserved to win?
Morocco beat Belgium 2–0, and the replays lean Morocco’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Belgium, 3 end level. Morocco made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Morocco lucky · −39 Belgium
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 2, 3 end level, Morocco win 5.
- 1 BEL 1 MAR 0
- 2 BEL 2 MAR 0
- 3 BEL 2 MAR 2
- 4 BEL 0 MAR 0
- 5 BEL 3 MAR 3
- 6 BEL 0 MAR 3
- 7 BEL 0 MAR 2
- 8 BEL 0 MAR 1
- 9 BEL 0 MAR 1
- 10 BEL 1 MAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 23%, 31% end level, Morocco win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Morocco by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Belgium by 2 | 5.4% |
| Belgium by 1 | 16.3% |
| Draw | 31.0% |
| Morocco by 1 | 26.4% |
| Morocco by 2 | 13.0% |
| Morocco by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 10 | 0 | 0.64 | −0.64 |
 Morocco | 10 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Romain Saïss scored from a shot | 0.56 |
| 91' | Zakaria Aboukhlal scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Michy Batshuayi Tunga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% MAR |
| 2 | 16' | Amadou Onana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% MAR |
| 3 | 27' | Selim Amallah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% BEL |
| 4 | 34' | Achraf Hakimi Mouh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BEL |
| 5 | 51' | Amadou Onana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAR |
| 6 | 64' | Dries Mertens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MAR |
| 7 | 72' | Romain Saïss scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +17% MAR |
| 8 | 81' | Jan Vertonghen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 7% · draw 16% · Morocco 78%
- Final margin
- Morocco by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Morocco
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Morocco by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 23% · draw 31% · Morocco 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Morocco win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
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