Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 26, 2022
France 2–1 Denmark: who deserved to win?
France beat Denmark 2–1, and the replays lean France’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Denmark, 2 end level. France made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 France lucky · −25 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. France win 7, 2 end level, Denmark win 1.
- 1 FRA 4 DEN 3
- 2 FRA 1 DEN 0
- 3 FRA 1 DEN 0
- 4 FRA 3 DEN 1
- 5 FRA 2 DEN 0
- 6 FRA 4 DEN 1
- 7 FRA 4 DEN 0
- 8 FRA 1 DEN 1
- 9 FRA 1 DEN 1
- 10 FRA 1 DEN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 65%, 19% end level, Denmark win 16%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 20.9% |
| France by 2 | 19.6% |
| France by 1 | 24.8% |
| Draw | 18.8% |
| Denmark by 1 | 10.7% |
| Denmark by 2 | 4.0% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 21 | 2 | 1.93 | +0.07 |
 Denmark | 10 | 1 | 0.89 | +0.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 60' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 67' | Andreas Christensen scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 85' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% DEN |
| 2 | 59' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% DEN |
| 3 | 60' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +32% FRA |
| 4 | 67' | Andreas Christensen scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +28% DEN |
| 5 | 72' | Jesper Lindstrøm didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% FRA |
| 6 | 77' | Aurélien Djani Tchouaméni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% DEN |
| 7 | 80' | Martin Braithwaite Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +10% FRA |
| 8 | 85' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +29% FRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
France 64% · draw 21% · Denmark 15%
- Final margin
- France by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- France 65% · draw 19% · Denmark 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
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- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
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- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil