Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 26, 2022
Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia: who deserved to win?
Poland beat Saudi Arabia 2–0, and the replays lean Poland’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Saudi Arabia, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.7 expected goals to 2.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Poland | 2 | 1.73 |
 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 1.97 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Poland lucky · −40 Saudi Arabia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 5, 2 end level, Saudi Arabia win 3.
- 1 POL 3 KSA 2
- 2 POL 2 KSA 1
- 3 POL 2 KSA 0
- 4 POL 4 KSA 1
- 5 POL 4 KSA 0
- 6 POL 1 KSA 1
- 7 POL 2 KSA 2
- 8 POL 0 KSA 3
- 9 POL 1 KSA 3
- 10 POL 2 KSA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 49%, 21% end level, Saudi Arabia win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Poland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 14.9% |
| Poland by 2 | 14.5% |
| Poland by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Saudi Arabia by 1 | 15.8% |
| Saudi Arabia by 2 | 9.2% |
| Saudi Arabia by 3+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 9 | 2 | 1.73 | +0.27 |
 Saudi Arabia | 17 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.97 | −1.97 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Piotr Zieliński scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 45' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 45' | Mohammed Al Burayk didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 81' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 89' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Piotr Zieliński scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +22% POL |
| 2 | 45' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +24% POL |
| 3 | 45' | Mohammed Al Burayk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +11% POL |
| 4 | 54' | Salem Mohammed Al Dawsari didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% POL |
| 5 | 59' | Firas Tariq Nasser Al Albirakan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% POL |
| 6 | 65' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% KSA |
| 7 | 77' | Abdulelah Saad Hameed Al-Malki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% POL |
| 8 | 81' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +3% POL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 57% · draw 22% · Saudi Arabia 21%
- Final margin
- Poland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Poland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Poland by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 49% · draw 21% · Saudi Arabia 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Poland win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
- Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Wales 0–2 Iran Nov 25, 2022 · replay 71% for Iran
- Qatar 1–3 Senegal Nov 25, 2022 · replay 60% for Senegal
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia
- Brazil 1–0 Switzerland Nov 28, 2022 · replay 70% for Brazil