luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 28, 2022

Brazil 1–0 Switzerland: who deserved to win?

Brazil beat Switzerland 1–0, and the replays lean Brazil’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Switzerland, 4 end level. Brazil made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Brazil 1 0.92
Switzerland 0 0.29

November 28, 2022 · Stadium 974 · Referee: Ivan Arcides Barton Cisneros

Luck index +30 Brazil lucky · −30 Switzerland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Brazil win 5, 4 end level, Switzerland win 1.

  1. 1 BRA 1 SUI 0
  2. 2 BRA 1 SUI 0
  3. 3 BRA 1 SUI 0
  4. 4 BRA 2 SUI 0
  5. 5 BRA 3 SUI 0
  6. 6 BRA 1 SUI 1
  7. 7 BRA 0 SUI 0
  8. 8 BRA 0 SUI 0
  9. 9 BRA 0 SUI 0
  10. 10 BRA 0 SUI 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Brazil win 52%, 36% end level, Switzerland win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Brazil by 3+6.2%
Brazil by 215.2%
Brazil by 130.5%
Draw35.5%
Switzerland by 110.6%
Switzerland by 21.7%
Switzerland by 3+0.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Brazil1310.92+0.08
Switzerland600.29−0.29

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
82'Carlos Henrique Casimiro scored from a shot0.07

When it happened

Brazil’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Brazil was ahead in it, below while Switzerland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 5' Silvan Widmer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% BRA
2 26' Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +6% SUI
3 43' Thiago Emiliano da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% SUI
4 52' Djibril Sow didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% BRA
5 59' Djibril Sow didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% BRA
6 69' Marcos Aoás Corrêa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% SUI
7 71' Richarlison de Andrade didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% SUI
8 82' Carlos Henrique Casimiro scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +42% BRA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Brazil 54% · draw 34% · Switzerland 12%

Final margin
Brazil by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for Brazil
Luck-adjusted margin
Brazil by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Brazil 52% · draw 36% · Switzerland 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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