Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 28, 2022
Cameroon 3–3 Serbia: who deserved to win?
Cameroon and Serbia drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Cameroon win 4 of 10, Serbia 4, and 2 end level. Cameroon made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Cameroon about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cameroon win 4, 2 end level, Serbia win 4.
- 1 CMR 1 SRB 0
- 2 CMR 2 SRB 1
- 3 CMR 2 SRB 0
- 4 CMR 4 SRB 1
- 5 CMR 2 SRB 2
- 6 CMR 1 SRB 1
- 7 CMR 0 SRB 3
- 8 CMR 0 SRB 2
- 9 CMR 4 SRB 5
- 10 CMR 3 SRB 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Cameroon win 38%, 21% end level, Serbia win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cameroon by 3+ | 8.9% |
| Cameroon by 2 | 11.6% |
| Cameroon by 1 | 17.6% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| Serbia by 1 | 18.6% |
| Serbia by 2 | 11.9% |
| Serbia by 3+ | 10.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cameroon | 13 | 3 | 2.07 | +0.93 |
 Serbia | 15 | 3 | 1.74 | +1.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Jean-Charles Castelletto scored from a shot | 0.89 |
| 45' | Strahinja Pavlović scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 47' | Sergej Milinković-Savić scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 52' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.90 |
| 62' | Vincent Paté Aboubakar scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 65' | Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Cameroon’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Nicolas Alexis Julio N'Koulou Ndoubena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SRB |
| 2 | 28' | Jean-Charles Castelletto scored from a shotFinishing · 89% chance | +3% CMR |
| 3 | 45' | Strahinja Pavlović scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +28% SRB |
| 4 | 47' | Sergej Milinković-Savić scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +30% SRB |
| 5 | 62' | Vincent Paté Aboubakar scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% CMR |
| 6 | 65' | Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +20% CMR |
| 7 | 75' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% CMR |
| 8 | 88' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +6% CMR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cameroon 44% · draw 29% · Serbia 27%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Serbia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cameroon by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Cameroon 38% · draw 21% · Serbia 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
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