Matchday 2 · World Cup 2022 · November 28, 2022
South Korea 2–3 Ghana: who deserved to win?
Ghana beat South Korea 3–2, and the replays lean Ghana’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for South Korea, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 2 | 1.37 |
 Ghana | 3 | 1.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Ghana lucky · −44 South Korea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Korea win 3, 3 end level, Ghana win 4.
- 1 KOR 2 GHA 1
- 2 KOR 3 GHA 2
- 3 KOR 3 GHA 0
- 4 KOR 1 GHA 1
- 5 KOR 1 GHA 1
- 6 KOR 1 GHA 1
- 7 KOR 0 GHA 3
- 8 KOR 0 GHA 2
- 9 KOR 2 GHA 3
- 10 KOR 0 GHA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
South Korea win 31%, 26% end level, Ghana win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Ghana by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Korea by 3+ | 4.2% |
| South Korea by 2 | 8.4% |
| South Korea by 1 | 18.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Ghana by 1 | 22.6% |
| Ghana by 2 | 12.4% |
| Ghana by 3+ | 8.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Korea | 21 | 2 | 1.37 | +0.63 |
 Ghana | 7 | 3 | 1.18 | +1.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Mohamed Salisu scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 33' | Mohammed Kudus scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 57' | Gue-Sung Cho scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 60' | Gue-Sung Cho scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 67' | Mohammed Kudus scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
South Korea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Mohamed Salisu scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +16% GHA |
| 2 | 33' | Mohammed Kudus scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +12% GHA |
| 3 | 57' | Gue-Sung Cho scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +10% KOR |
| 4 | 60' | Gue-Sung Cho scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +29% KOR |
| 5 | 67' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% KOR |
| 6 | 67' | Mohammed Kudus scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +32% GHA |
| 7 | 75' | Jin-Su Kim didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% GHA |
| 8 | 90' | Young-Gwon Kim didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% GHA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Korea 39% · draw 27% · Ghana 34%
- Final margin
- Ghana by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Ghana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ghana by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- South Korea 31% · draw 26% · Ghana 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Ghana win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2022
- Netherlands 1–1 Ecuador Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 0–0 United States Nov 25, 2022 · drawn; replay 44% draws
- Wales 0–2 Iran Nov 25, 2022 · replay 71% for Iran
- Qatar 1–3 Senegal Nov 25, 2022 · replay 60% for Senegal
- Poland 2–0 Saudi Arabia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 60% for Poland
- France 2–1 Denmark Nov 26, 2022 · replay 75% for France
- Tunisia 0–1 Australia Nov 26, 2022 · replay 38% for Australia
- Argentina 2–0 Mexico Nov 26, 2022 · replay 55% for Argentina
- Japan 0–1 Costa Rica Nov 27, 2022 · replay 33% for Costa Rica
- Spain 1–1 Germany Nov 27, 2022 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Belgium 0–2 Morocco Nov 27, 2022 · replay 61% for Morocco
- Croatia 4–1 Canada Nov 27, 2022 · replay 95% for Croatia