Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 21, 2015
Málaga 0–0 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Málaga and Sevilla drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Málaga win 3 of 10, Sevilla 4, and 3 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Málaga about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 3 end level, Sevilla win 4.
- 1 MAL 2 SEV 1
- 2 MAL 1 SEV 0
- 3 MAL 2 SEV 0
- 4 MAL 2 SEV 2
- 5 MAL 1 SEV 1
- 6 MAL 0 SEV 0
- 7 MAL 0 SEV 3
- 8 MAL 1 SEV 3
- 9 MAL 0 SEV 1
- 10 MAL 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 29%, 26% end level, Sevilla win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 3.4% |
| Málaga by 2 | 7.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 17.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 22.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 13.9% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 8.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 26 | 0 | 1.09 | −1.09 |
 Sevilla | 10 | 0 | 1.41 | −1.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 17' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MAL |
| 2 | 15' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +12% MAL |
| 3 | 17' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% MAL |
| 4 | 53' | Arthur Etienne Boka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SEV |
| 5 | 61' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
| 6 | 67' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% MAL |
| 7 | 88' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% SEV |
| 8 | 92' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 28% · draw 27% · Sevilla 45%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 29% · draw 26% · Sevilla 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar