Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
Betis 1–1 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Betis and Villarreal drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 4 of 10, Villarreal 3, and 3 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.60 |
 Villarreal | 1 | 1.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 Betis about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 4, 3 end level, Villarreal win 3.
- 1 BET 4 VIL 3
- 2 BET 1 VIL 0
- 3 BET 2 VIL 0
- 4 BET 4 VIL 1
- 5 BET 1 VIL 1
- 6 BET 1 VIL 1
- 7 BET 1 VIL 1
- 8 BET 0 VIL 2
- 9 BET 0 VIL 1
- 10 BET 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 39%, 26% end level, Villarreal win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 6.3% |
| Betis by 2 | 11.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 21.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 20.1% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 9.8% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 22 | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
 Villarreal | 8 | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 74' | Samuel García Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 86' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.65 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BET |
| 2 | 31' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +21% VIL |
| 3 | 51' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VIL |
| 4 | 69' | Xavier Torres Buigues didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VIL |
| 5 | 74' | Samuel García Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +4% BET |
| 6 | 76' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% VIL |
| 7 | 86' | Xavier Torres Buigues didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +11% VIL |
| 8 | 86' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +17% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 50% · draw 28% · Villarreal 22%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 39% · draw 26% · Villarreal 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar