Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
Athletic 0–1 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Athletic 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.30 |
 Barcelona | 1 | 1.74 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Barcelona about even · −15 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 1, 2 end level, Barcelona win 7.
- 1 ATH 1 BAR 0
- 2 ATH 0 BAR 0
- 3 ATH 0 BAR 0
- 4 ATH 0 BAR 4
- 5 ATH 1 BAR 4
- 6 ATH 0 BAR 2
- 7 ATH 0 BAR 2
- 8 ATH 2 BAR 3
- 9 ATH 0 BAR 1
- 10 ATH 0 BAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 5%, 18% end level, Barcelona win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Athletic by 2 | 0.5% |
| Athletic by 1 | 4.8% |
| Draw | 18.4% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 28.9% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 23.4% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 24.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 6 | 0 | 0.30 | −0.30 |
 Barcelona | 10 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.74 | −0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 53' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATH |
| 2 | 23' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BAR |
| 3 | 30' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +23% ATH |
| 4 | 33' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% ATH |
| 5 | 40' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BAR |
| 6 | 41' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATH |
| 7 | 53' | The game turned hereLuis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +22% BAR |
| 8 | 79' | Ibai Gómez Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 4% · draw 16% · Barcelona 81%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 5% · draw 18% · Barcelona 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar