Matchday 1 · La Liga 2015-16 · August 23, 2015
Sporting 0–0 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Sporting and Real Madrid drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sporting win 1 of 10, Real Madrid 7, and 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.28 |
 Real Madrid | 0 | 1.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Sporting lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 1, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 7.
- 1 SPO 1 RMA 0
- 2 SPO 0 RMA 0
- 3 SPO 0 RMA 0
- 4 SPO 0 RMA 3
- 5 SPO 0 RMA 3
- 6 SPO 0 RMA 2
- 7 SPO 1 RMA 3
- 8 SPO 0 RMA 1
- 9 SPO 1 RMA 2
- 10 SPO 2 RMA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 7%, 24% end level, Real Madrid win 69%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 1.2% |
| Sporting by 1 | 5.8% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 30.7% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 21.6% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 17.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 6 | 0 | 0.28 | −0.28 |
 Real Madrid | 27 | 0 | 1.50 | −1.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SPO |
| 2 | 47' | Carlos Carmona Bonet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RMA |
| 3 | 61' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SPO |
| 4 | 66' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +11% SPO |
| 5 | 68' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SPO |
| 6 | 77' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SPO |
| 7 | 83' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SPO |
| 8 | 87' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 7% · draw 24% · Real Madrid 69%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 7% · draw 24% · Real Madrid 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Real Madrid
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Málaga 0–0 Sevilla Aug 21, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Rayo 0–0 Valencia Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Getafe Aug 22, 2015 · replay 28% for Espanyol
- Deportivo 0–0 Real Sociedad Aug 22, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 1–0 Las Palmas Aug 22, 2015 · replay 57% for Atlético
- Levante 1–2 Celta Aug 23, 2015 · replay 81% for Celta
- Betis 1–1 Villarreal Aug 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Aug 23, 2015 · replay 85% for Barcelona
- Granada 1–3 Eibar Aug 24, 2015 · replay 83% for Eibar